Enviro Canada's latest forecast
The following thread was started by Sharlene on Mayne Island on November 02, 2009 at 7:48 pm PST
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The above followup was added by Sharlene on November 02, 2009 at 7:51 pm PST.
Here's Environmental Canada prediction (colder than normal):
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s234fe1t_s
...and here's NOAA's prediction (warmer than normal):
http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php?lead=2
for the same period of time. Aren't they talking to each other?
The above followup was added by Vlad Pomajzl, Saltspring on November 02, 2009 at 9:06 pm PST.
Look at the graph in the attached link and then read the associated comments. After doing that, can you tell if the coming winter will likely be warmer or colder than the average? I can't, lol. Perhaps as more data comes in next month.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/02/seat-surface-temperature-makes-a-jump/#comments
Otherwise I am busy building a temporary shelter for my potted subtropicals and preparing for the worst.
The above followup was added by Vlad Pomajzl, Saltspring on November 03, 2009 at 8:26 am PST.
Take a look at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
That will give you the El Nino update, which calls for a strengthening of El Nino. This might be somewhat comforting, as it usually ties into a warmer scenario.
The above followup was added by Axel on November 03, 2009 at 3:02 pm PST.
I'm still predicting a milder or near normal winter. No repeat of last December. I'm sticking with that. You think negative and negative usually happens. Elnino will keep us moderate. Last year was bad, but I think it still could have been worse.
The above followup was added by Joe, SSI on November 03, 2009 at 5:32 pm PST.
Wonder why EC stick to their "Below Normal" outlook for the winter temperatures? Is that perhaps because of the PDO and its strength??
The above followup was added by Vlad Pomajzl, Saltspring on November 03, 2009 at 6:05 pm PST.
Last year was a La Nina and that meant it was supposed to be a cold wet winter right? It turned out to be incredibly dry with a strong inversion pattern through the key winter months and every fall month except December was mild and dry. The prediction that every El Nino will bring mild dry winter conditions is based on a relatively short period of data which indicate it will bring a higher probability of mild dry weather.
There are other factors to consider here too. Arctic sea ice has retreated rapidly over the past 5 years particularly in the Chukchi Sea (north of the Bering Strait). It's been speculated that when that part of the Arctic is ice-free it results in more storms entering the sea and results in the polar jet stream riding higher over the central pacific while troughing in the PNW. So that could mitigate any moderating effects El Nino would have on our weather during the late fall or early winter. There's also the PDO which seems to be entering a cold phase that would typically result in colder weather.
So far this fall has been colder and wetter than last year so maybe we'll get a mild December followed by a cool wet winter.
The above followup was added by Eric on November 03, 2009 at 9:59 pm PST.
I don't think we'll have any trouble staying milder this year than last. While it wasn't the absolute worst cold spell, it was still awfully severe. It would take a truly colossal freeze to out-perform last winter. This year will probably be warmer if only because last year was so cold.
The above followup was added by Eric, Springfield on November 04, 2009 at 5:47 am PST.
According to David Phillips (Environment Canada senior climatologist), since 1950 there have been 17 El Nino years, and fifteen of those winters were warmer than average in Vancouver and had less snow too. I heard him on the radio yesterday and when asked about the impact of El Nino on the Olympics in Vancouver, he, of course, explained that you can't project for specific weeks in Feb, but that the "flavour" of the winter would very likely be milder than average. This contradicts Environment Canada's Nov 1 seasonal forecast, which I find a bit odd.
The above followup was added by Linda Denman Island, BC 8b on November 04, 2009 at 8:15 am PST.
NOAA shows strengthening of the El Nino and its effects (above normal temps for PNW) throughout the winter until next spring. This was also pointed out by the senior EC meteorologists in EC David Jones (in the last night's news) and by (former EC meteorologist) Mark Madryga (in this morning news). Although Madryga noted the official "below normal" forecast by EC he did not provide any possible explanation for it. Here the forecast for the US:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images/usT2mSea.gif
By contrast NOAA shows much of Europe below normal in terms of temperatures from February to about April.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images/euT2mMon.gif
The above followup was added by Vlad Pomajzl, Saltspring on November 04, 2009 at 8:17 am PST.
Usually means colder in the east.
The above followup was added by Joe, SSI on November 04, 2009 at 6:38 pm PST.
Most years show a slight temperature deficit (La Niņa) or a slight temperature surge (El Niņo) throughout the year, or neutral conditions throughout. Not since 1976 has a calendar year gone from a La Niņa start to an El Niņo finish. That would be the closest analog year on the chart if a moderate El Niņo does, in fact, get established this fall (anyone here remember what 1976 was like?).
1995 and 1998 saw the opposite: An El Niņo new year went La Niņa in the autumn. There were some significant freezes in those years.
The above followup was added by Steve in Brookings on November 09, 2009 at 6:39 pm PST.