Northwest Palms

snow coming?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 900 AM PST TUE DEC 28 2004 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND BY FRI. A MUCH COLDER SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER YESTERDAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION AROUND THE SOUND...ESPECIALLY SEATTLE SWD. SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY IN STORE ALTHOUGH LESS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER N CA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD WITH THE HIGH DECK ALREADY INTO OREGON THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUD SHOULD DRIFT UP INTO WA LATER TODAY BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER LIGHT AND CHANCE WORDING SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ON WED WITH A BREAK IN PRECIP...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION. THE LOW STALLS ALONG 130 W WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A RATHER DEEP SURFACE TROUGH TO SWEEP THROUGH ON THU. THE NIGHT SHIFT INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THU WHICH LOOKS GOOD. COLDER AIR WILL TRICKLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OVER WA AND STALLS THROUGH ABOUT FRI. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING OFF TO AROUND 1000-1500 FEET. THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE INTERESTING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING STRONG RIDGING ALONG 150 W WHICH ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW FORMING ALONG THE B.C. COAST TO DRIVE SWD TOWARDS WA BY SAT. MANY FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE CERTAINLY PRESENT FOR A LOW LAND SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE OVER WRN WA. THE CURRENT SCENARIO DEVELOPS A SUB 5200M UPPER LOW OVER B.C. AND DROPS IT SWD ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE N OREGON COAST BY SUN. THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE MOST CRUCIAL...AND MOST MODELS AGREE THUS FAR IN A TRACK DOWN THE WA COAST TO NEAR ASTORIA BY SUN AM. AT THE SAME TIME...ANTICYCLOGENISIS OVER CENTRAL B.C. HELPS DEVELOP A STRONG SFC HIGH POSSIBLY 1050+ MB WITH H850 MB TEMPS NEAR -30C. THIS COLD AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO DAM UP AGAINST THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH THE LEADING EDGE TO REACH THE CANADIAN/WA BORDER SOMETIME ON SAT. STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD DRAIN COLD AIR THROUGH THE FRASER RIVER VALLEY...BUT HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT TO GET TOO DEEP INTO DETAILS...BUT I BELIEVE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK BRINGING IN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO AT LEAST THE FAR N INLAND LOW LANDS. IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...WE MIGHT SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WRN WA LATER IN THE WEEKEND BUT THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. STAY TUNED. MERCER

The following thread was started by Ian on December 28, 2004 at 10:42 am PST

Sorry the paragraph breaks did not appear when I copied this document... anyways just read the last half of this morning's statement from the Seattle NWS office.

The above followup was added by Ian on December 28, 2004 at 10:44 am PST.

Ian, I was looking at the Environment Canada Victoria forcast last night and could only see rain. Perhaps at higher elevations and inland regions may see the white stuff. I still haven't recorded my first frost yet. I don't know what I want to see first, frost or snow? I dislike both. The current temp. here is only 4.7 C.. under light overcast skies. Cheers, Joe

The above followup was added by Joe, SSI on December 28, 2004 at 10:48 am PST.

When ever the daytime temps are only in the 30's that's when I start to get concern about a big freeze that can happen at night. That's when I see the most damage. I don't mine a little wet snow when the temps are at 30f. or above.
The few desert plants I have (agaves, including Agave tenuifolia, aloes, including tender Aloe plicatilis - Fan Aloe and Aloe variegata was planted this year, Cyrtanthus brachyscyphus, Dyckia hybrid "Red Seedlings" and Dyckia platyphylla 'Silver Sheen', I have some type of Gasteria in the ground for three years and it is till very much a live. Haworthia fasciata, Leonotis leonurus, Leucadendron 'Safari Sunshine' I just planted this year. Manfreda variegata 'Macho Mocha', Puya, I think thats all thats out there right now. Will all be put to the test this winter, some I have had for 5 years others will be their first winter.

So I guess will have to see what happens this weekend and the following week. My blankets are ready for the worst if it happens.

The above followup was added by Roger in Olympia on December 28, 2004 at 1:59 pm PST.

I look at a few weather predictions and they are saying this comming Saturday and Sunday the low will be around 30f for my area and the high around 40f. Not bad at all! There is only 30% percept for those days, however any thing could happen, thing could change for the better or worst. They also say it will be dryer and somewhat warmer starting Tuesday of next week. We only have three more weeks before the weather changes and the sun will warm up the PNW area in the daytime with more daytime heat especially on sunny days. Around January 25th.

My coldest and first frost was November 28 at 30f. Still have some banana and cannas looking good.

The above followup was added by Roger in Olympia on December 28, 2004 at 2:29 pm PST.

This picture is not very good. The color on the leaves are more intense in summer. Picture was taken in October 2004 in Olympia, wa.

The above followup was added by Roger in Olympia on December 28, 2004 at 2:38 pm PST.

This is a picture of Leucadendron 'Safari Sunshine in bloom in S.Cali. This is a small plant only growing 4' tall I believe.

The above followup was added by Roger in Olympia on December 28, 2004 at 2:42 pm PST.

I think this picture was taken in a garden in New Zealand. Here it is blooming in winer.

The above followup was added by Roger in Olympia on December 28, 2004 at 3:51 pm PST.

Hey Roger..
Leucadendron 'Safari Sunshine’
that is a great looking plant!! Do you know if it will survive NW winters? Do you need to protect it at all? do you amdend the soil? Id like to know..that plant looks very cool!! Thanks
John
Phoenix, AZ

The above followup was added by John on December 29, 2004 at 4:11 pm PST.

John, Here's all I know ...This is a variegated foliage leucadendrons, which are tough, colorful and grow very slowly in a sunny spots or on a sunny bank or sunny border. As long as they are planted in well-drained soils the winter rains are not a problem.
Poor soils suit them better. Leucadendrons do best without fertilizers; they really do like poor soils and are easily killed with too much plant foods. Small Added peat moss to the soil will also help.
If temps go into the low 20’s cover with blanket and tarp in the PNW. Hardiness is 20f-25f. (Z9) will need protection in colder winters around here. I have not had a problem with the rainy seasons. Looks great with agapanthus, grevilleas, Ceanothus and gazina.

The above followup was added by Roger in Olympia on December 29, 2004 at 6:34 pm PST.

Man did I see a lot of Leucadendrons at the UCSC arboretum last week! I have to start growing more of those again.

I tend to trust the NWS when they say the forecast is very uncertain, while everyone else pretends like they know how things are going to develop... and at this point, the weekend still looks uncertain, but more models indicate the storm might track to the south of us, leaving us cool and relatively dry.

The above followup was added by Ian on December 30, 2004 at 1:04 am PST.

Ian, I am seeing the same thing, that it will now be a little warmer over this weekend than predicted. Good news for the skiers. But starting next week it will be dryer and much colder with a few chilly daytime temps only in the upper 30’s. (It’s that time of year again!) I was hoping not to go under 30f this winter but that’s really stretching it. I may actually go into the upper 20’s next week and I'll still be happy if that happens, although NWS is also saying looks like a prolonged period of cold and unsettled weather for next week, it could snow then, I hope it stays above 700 ft.

The above followup was added by Roger in Olympia on December 30, 2004 at 2:35 pm PST.

The Weather pattern we are currently having sure seems like the typical El Nino weather pattern.

Just think about it. It 's January and all the pacific storms are tracking to South, which I think is typical for an El Nino year. If this weather pattern maintains well into January, the statistical chances of having a major arctic outbreak decrease significantly.

I’m not saying we won’t see the radiation frosts. However, the longer we go without an arctic event, the chances decrease each day that we will have one.

I’m an optimist.

The above followup was added by Andy Fritze, Maple Valley Wa, 8a on December 31, 2004 at 3:13 pm PST.

A typical El Nino pattern is to see the jet stream split with all the energy and moisture tracking to the north and south of us. That is why this year we are way behind on rainfall, and we have not seen any major windstorms or a lot of snow in the mountains. In the meantime, the Southwest is having a very wet winter. Last time we had a strong El Nino (1997-98) we had one brief intrusion of Arctic air with snow, but it did not get below 24F at my place which really isn't so bad. A little modified arctic air can always creep in during an El Nino winter, but usually it is not too severe. Even if we get some hard frosts next week we are probably not going to see a very cold winter overall.

The above followup was added by Ian on December 31, 2004 at 4:01 pm PST.